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Rollout Result and Commentary

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 2:46 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout Result and Commentary (Paul Weaver)

If the XG+ data presented below is close to accurate, then Kenji's play of 52D-33E was wrong by less (if wrong at all) than my play of 52D-33E-41P.

I see it differently, perhaps because you were unaware of the 52D-33 money rollout listed in red.

52D-33
....m[A C7 B12 E17] +e, m[A C30 B41 E41] ~15
–6–9 [C=B A5 E10] +e
....s[B E8 C11 A61] +e

If we use the rollout as arbiter, XGR+ overestimates the value of E vs A by .024 for money. (OTOH, it gets E vs B and E vs C about right.)

If we project the same XGR+ bias onto the -6-9 score, then E is an error of .029, as we are pushing A up relative to the rest of the plays and E ends up .029 worse than A.

Based on your XG rollout and various XGR+ evals, our best guess of the error size of 52D-33E-41 at –9–6 seems to be .022 + .015 – .002 = .035. So, it would seem that there is not much difference between the error size of 52D-33E at –6–9 and 52D-33E-41P at –9–6.


33E (24/21(2) 6/3(2)) often performs surprising well on the second roll in rollouts at gammon save. In fact, it may sometimes be the best play on the second roll at gammon save. Wonder if Nack has any data supporting this assertion.

Did you mean "for money" the first time that you said "at gammon save"? If so, your paragraph makes sense to me. In answer...

The only (gammon) save rollout I have that includes E is 65R-33 [B E2 C30 U42 A89] /15*5. Other save rollouts that I've been sent mysteriously exclude E:

    32D-33 s[C B19] /5
    43D-33 s[C B6] /15
    41$-33 s[C B3] /15
    51$-33 s[C B2] /15
    62$-33 s[C B4] /15
    62S-33 s[b D40] /5

I have "Where is E?" next to each of those results in my data docs.

Some other positions for which as of yet I have no save data at all are: 52D-33, 54D-33, 61P-33, 63S-33 and 64R-33. In all of these, I would think that 24/21(2) 6/3(2) is at least somewhat competitive at the save score.

Stick or David may well have rolled out some double 3s replies at (gammon) save on one bot or the other of which I am not yet aware.

Key: A = Attack (8/5(2) 6/3(2)), B [or b when a 7pt blot isn't hit] = Both (24/21(2) 13/10(2)), C = Cross (24/21(2) 8/5(2)), D = 13/7*(2), E = Each (24/21(2) 6/3(2)), R = 24/15* 24/21, and U = 24/18(2).

For reference, here is some information on double 3s replies for money.

Nack

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