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Confidence intervals?

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Saturday, 7 August 2010, at 2:52 a.m.

In Response To: Confidence intervals? (Petter Bengtsson)

Yes this is odd.

4-ply should results in a slightly more accurate VR so the confidence should be a bit lower, but surely not that much. Also the time for the RO looks extremely low (more than twice faster than my core i7).

Keene, if you have saved that RO could you email me the XGP file?

here is a 648 RO.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 166
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a---BCB--A--fB--AbBb--Bca-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.14% (G: 29.72% B: 1.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.86% (G: 9.07% B: 0.31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.27% (G: 30.15% B: 1.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.73% (G: 8.78% B: 0.30%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.343
Double:+1.136
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.813 (-0.062)
Double/Take:+0.875
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.125)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.023 (+0.791...+0.836)
Confidence Double: ± 0.030 (+0.845...+0.905)
Double Decision confidence: 99.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20

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