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Squeezing is fun - RO Recap

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 6 August 2010, at 4:18 p.m.

In Response To: Squeezing is fun. (storm)

Blue on roll.

White138


1X3X2O ' '2X2O2X1O ' '2O

 ' ' '2O3O2O ' '1O ' '6X

Blue166

Position ID: HWbwA0DYjTAyDA Match ID: cAngAAAAAAAA

Rollout recap

ScoreDouble/Take EquityBot/PlyTrials
-7,-71.002 ± 0.030 Gnubg 2-ply1296 by Storm
-7,-70.987 ± 0.015 XG 3-ply5184 by Stick
Money0.899 ± 0.027 XG 3-ply1296 by Matt
Money0.882 ± 0.005 XG 4-ply1296 by Keene

If the rollouts are accurate, and equally competent players are playing this as a money game take/pass prop, the taker should win about one-tenth of a point per game. That's because (for those unfamiliar with propositions) the doubler pays the taker 1 point per game to take the cube, and wins back (according to the rollouts) only about 0.9 points per game.

Petter's unanswered question: "Isn't it odd that the [95% Confidence Intervals] in Keene's [1296-trial 4-ply] rollout are about 5 times smaller than in Matt's [1296-trial 3-ply] rollout?"


"And now for something completely different." -- Monty Python

"There must be some way out of here said the joker to the thief. There's so much confusion. I can't get no relief. Businessmen, they drink my wine. Plowmen dig my earth. None of them along the line know what any of it is worth."

"No reason to get excited," the thief he kindly spoke. "There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke. But you and I, we've been through that, and this is not our fate. So let us not talk falsely now. The hour is getting late."

All along the watchtower princes kept the view, While all the women came and went, barefoot servants too. Outside in the distance a wildcat did growl. Two riders were approaching. The wind began to howl. -- Bob Dylan

"That whole artistic mystique is one of the great traps of this business, because down that road lies unintelligibility." -- Dave Van Ronk

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