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Confidence intervals?

Posted By: Petter Bengtsson
Date: Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 9:44 p.m.

In Response To: Real RO (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Isn't it odd that the CIs in Keene's rollout are about 5 times smaller than in Matt's rollout?

--------- From Matt's rollout ----------

1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double: ± 0.020 (+0.807...+0.846)

Confidence Double: ± 0.027 (+0.871...+0.926)

---------- From Keene's rollout ----------

1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply

Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.804...+0.812)

Confidence Double: ± 0.005 (+0.876...+0.887)

Messages In This Thread

• Squeezing is fun.
  storm -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 10:18 a.m.
  • Squeezing is fun.
    Stick -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 1:32 p.m.
    • Squeezing is fun.
      storm -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 1:42 p.m.
      • Squeezing is fun.
        Stick -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 1:51 p.m.
        • Squeezing is fun.
          storm -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 2:07 p.m.
  • Squeezing is fun.
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 3:15 p.m.
  • Squeezing is fun.
    Keene -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 4:18 p.m.
    • Prop! *NM*
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 4:32 p.m.
    • Squeezing is fun.
      Stick -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 8:54 p.m.
      • Squeezing is fun.
        Keene -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 9:13 p.m.
  • Doubling is fun.
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 4:35 p.m.
  • White's Position is Beautiful and Fluid
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 5:40 p.m.
    • White's Position is Beautiful and Fluid
      storm -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 5:43 a.m.
      • White's Position is Beautiful and Fluid
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 6:22 a.m.
        • White's Position is Beautiful and Fluid
          storm -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 8:22 a.m.
          • White's Position is Beautiful and Fluid
            Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 9:29 a.m.
            • White's Position is Beautiful and Fluid
              storm -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 4:17 p.m.
              • White's Position is Beautiful and Fluid
                Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 10:55 p.m.
  • Most probable sequence
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 6:38 p.m.
    • Matt, Please Give Nactation of Sequence
      Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 8:28 p.m.
      • Matt, Please Give Nactation of Sequence
        storm -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 8:22 a.m.
        • Matt, Please Give Nactation of Sequence
          storm -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 8:33 a.m.
        • Nactation of sequence, feedback
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 11:33 a.m.
    • Most probable sequence
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 9:46 p.m.
    • Ten moves, White is perfect
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 4:39 a.m.
  • Will post RO in approximately 8 hours. *NM*
    storm -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 8:28 a.m.
  • Miniature RO.
    storm -- Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 4:16 p.m.
    • Miniature RO.
      Stick -- Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 2:18 a.m.
      • Real RO
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 2:22 a.m.
        • Real RO
          Keene -- Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 3:40 a.m.
        • Real RO
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 8:16 p.m.
          • Real RO
            Stick -- Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 8:19 p.m.
            • Real RO
              Keene -- Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 9:29 p.m.
            • Real RO
              Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 10:51 p.m.
              • Real RO
                Keene -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 2:07 a.m.
                • Real RO
                  Stick -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 3:03 a.m.
                  • Real RO
                    Keene -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 4:32 a.m.
                    • Real RO
                      Stick -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 4:49 a.m.
                      • Real RO
                        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 9 August 2010, at 1:29 a.m.
                        • Real RO
                          Keene -- Monday, 9 August 2010, at 9:23 p.m.
                          • Real RO
                            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 10 August 2010, at 8:08 a.m.
            • Real RO
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 3:21 a.m.
              • Real RO
                storm -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 5:23 a.m.
                • Real RO
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 5:31 a.m.
                  • Real RO
                    Stick -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 11:56 a.m.
              • Real RO
                Stick -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 11:54 a.m.
        • Confidence intervals?
          Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 9:44 p.m.
          • Confidence intervals?
            Keene -- Thursday, 5 August 2010, at 10:16 p.m.
          • Confidence intervals?
            eXtreme Gammon -- Saturday, 7 August 2010, at 2:52 a.m.
  • Squeezing is fun - RO Recap
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 4:18 p.m.