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Nack vs Grandell

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 9 June 2010, at 6:20 p.m.

In Response To: Nack vs Grandell (Petter Bengtsson)

Despite the fact that several very strong players seem to think that 11/8 6/5 is clearly the right play, I am not sure I believe them. Which play comes out on top depends sensitively on how many checkers are on the bar and the value of gammons and backgammons. For example, at DMP, the more checkers there are on the bar, the more concerned you are about clearing safely because there will be continued danger of getting hit and virtually no danger of losing the race without getting hit, and 11/8 4/3 is probably better for that than 11/8 6/5. The problem with putting a checker on the 5 point is that after you clear the 6, the extra checker on the 5 point is a liability. With 4 or more checkers on the bar at DMP I'd play 11/8 4/3, and probably even with 3 checkers.

However, this is not DMP. Gammons and backgammons matter. 11/8 6/5 will generally lead to a faster bearoff. I don't know my MET at this score and even if I did I don't think I'd be able to estimate the difference in gammon/backgammon wins accurately. My guess, though, is that all three plays (11/7 being the third play) are very close, with extra games won by one play being balanced by extra gammons/backgammons won by another play. Tinkering with the score and the cube and the number of checkers on the bar will probably allow you to put whichever play you want on top.

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