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| 54S-63 | |
Thanks! I must say that 13/7 8/5* still looks plain wrong to me. I know according to the rollouts it is right, but I cannot make myself feel it is right...
I understand the feeling. The problem is that in response to opening 54S, 63 is one of Blue's three worst rolls. In that sense, R (Run, 24/15, see left-hand diagram below) also "looks plain wrong." After 54S-63R, Blue is hit by only 14 numbers instead of 30, but she will make a point (or two points) with 16 other numbers, or run a checker to safety with 4 numbers; her only airball is 51.
H (Hit, 13/7 8/5*, see right-hand diagram below) gives White super-airballs of 31 21 66 and robs White of her bar point with 11. On roll with two offensive key-points slotted, Blue gains enormously on those 6 numbers; that along with denying White most of her point-making rolls more than compensates for the pain of getting hit 16 extra times. Finally, only 5 of White's 30 hitting numbers hit twice (noting that 1 does so the other way anyway), so most of the time Blue will have a chance to cover his 5pt or 7pt.
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Nack