When you get a .003 result after a rollout, wouldn't it be reasonable to say that we may never be sure which is best until, possibly, the next generation of computers and software?
Even then we won't be sure.
What I would find interesting is to see a list of what opening and second roll moves actually have changed significantly (say, more than .005?) since the advent of XG.
Semantics probably, but rather than say that those moves have changed, I prefer to say that for those moves XG's rollouts will yield (or converge to) different values than for the rollouts of Snowie or Gnu.
Does anyone have such a list or know of where to find this?
For the second moves and beyond, it's a long-term project in progress. I suggest that you follow my summary posts and whenever you see a significant difference between bots or anything else you consider worthy of note that you jot it down (or bookmark the link). At this point, you can get caught up by working back reverse-chronogically, looking for the Nactation headers indicating second roll positions (and/or opening AtS, Nackgammon, whatever you're interested in).
Below is combined data for all first roll positions so far (excluding the no-brainers of 31 42 53 61 65), money only. Bots are listed in evolutionary order.
Opening 21
Snowie .. [$ S8] 80k
GnuBG .. [$ S19] 92k (or [$ S14] after reply-error adj.)
XG 3-ply [$ S5] 165k
XG 4-ply [$ S3] 24k
Opening 32
Snowie .. [S Z17 D18] 75k 44kZ
GnuBG .. [S D7 Z13] 92k
XG 3-ply [S D7] 46k
Opening 41
Snowie .. [S $22] 31k
GnuBG .. [S $6] 92k
XG 3-ply [S $8] 173k
XG 4-ply [S $22] 25k
Opening 43
Snowie .. [D S3 Z5 U6] 46k
GnuBG .. [D Z5 S12 U24] 92k 77kSU
XG 3-ply [D Z6 S10 U14] 108k 62kSU
XG 4-ply [D Z5 S12 U27] 46k 23kS 10kU
Opening 51
Snowie .. [S $12 R43] 31k 5kR
GnuBG .. [S $9 R41] 92k 51kR
XG 3-ply [S $13] 46k
Opening 52
Snowie .. [S D6] 46k
GnuBG .. [S D15] 92k
XG 3-ply [S D14] 46k
Opening 54
Snowie .. [S D21 R30] 31k
GnuBG .. [S D11 R24] 92k 46kR
XG 3-ply [S D3 R25] 62k
Opening 62
Snowie .. [S R22 $53] 15k 10k$
GnuBG .. [S R25 $35] 77k 51k$
XG 3-ply [S R28 $38] 62k
Opening 63
Snowie .. [S R5] 31k
GnuBG .. [S R13] 92k
XG 3-ply [S R11] 62k
Opening 64
Snowie .. [P R8 S10] 31k
GnuBG .. [P R5 S6] 103k
XG 3-ply [P S3 R10] 205k
XG 4-ply [R=S P4] 46k
Key: D = Down, R = Run, P = Point, $ = Slot, S = Split, Z = reverse split, U = Up. Error sizes are in thousandths.
After the brackets is the number of trials (in thousands, rounded down). For example, "[S D11 R24] 92k 46kR" means that S is best, D is -.011 and R is -.024 after 92000+ trials (only 46000+ for R).
Nack
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