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Error Rates and Edges

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 4:11 p.m.

In Response To: Error Rates and Edges (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I'd just point out that many games use an Elo rating system but not the exact same formula. Chess federations and backgammon orgs use an Elo formula, but the variables in the formula are different. As far as I know (Xavier cites for example a survey of 200,000 Gamesite matches; there's more discussion in the bgkm.com archive), the 2000/sqrt(N) variable makes for a robust but not perfect system (the chess org formulas aren't perfect for chess, either) over a wide range of match lengths and rating differentials.

As for differences in individual players' checker/cube play "style" making "drastic" deviations from what rating differentials predict, I have my doubts, particularly for highly rated players (say, top 20%, playing each other). A bot would say: you want to make "different" decisions? Bring them on! They're going to be worse for you, and I'm ready for them; you won't beat me with bad play. Substitute "world class" or "expert" for "bot." Wouldn't most such players say the same, and be right?

Messages In This Thread

• Error Rates and Edges
  Bill Calton -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 6:08 p.m.
  • Error Rates and Edges
    Stick -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 7:51 p.m.
    • Or use XG's Elo Calculator
      neilkaz -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 8:14 p.m.
      • Or use XG's Elo Calculator
        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 9:31 p.m.
        • Or use XG's Elo Calculator
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 10:07 p.m.
          • Or use XG's Elo Calculator
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 11:37 p.m.
            • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
              eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 11:49 p.m.
              • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
                Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 12:29 a.m.
                • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
                  Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 12:57 a.m.
                  • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
                    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 1:18 a.m.
                    • XG use the same Elo formula than FIBS
                      eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:07 a.m.
      • Or use XG's Elo Calculator, yes 1 PR=33 Elo
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 11:47 p.m.
  • Error Rates and Edges
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 8:52 p.m.
    • Error Rates and Edges
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 9:56 p.m.
      • Error Rates and Edges
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 10:00 p.m.
        • Error Rates and Edges
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 10:05 p.m.
          • Error Rates and Edges
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 24 May 2010, at 10:08 p.m.
            • Error Rates and Edges
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 3:06 p.m.
              • Error Rates and Edges
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 6:36 p.m.
                • Error Rates and Edges
                  eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 6:49 p.m.
                  • Error Rates and Edges
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 6:54 p.m.
                    • Error Rates and Edges
                      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 7:36 p.m.
                    • Error Rates and Edges
                      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 7:53 p.m.
                      • Error Rates and Edges
                        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 8:01 p.m.
                        • Error Rates and Edges
                          Bill Finneran -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 8:18 p.m.
                        • Error Rates and Edges
                          Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 7:09 p.m.
                        • Error Rates and Edges
                          Christian Plenz -- Thursday, 27 May 2010, at 1:08 p.m.
                      • Error Rates and Edges
                        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 8:11 p.m.
                        • Error Rates and Edges
                          Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 10:05 p.m.
                • Error Rates and Edges
                  Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 7:13 p.m.
            • Error Rates and Edges
              Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 4:11 p.m.
              • Error Rates and Edges
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 6:41 p.m.
  • Error Rates and Edges - - What is "average error"
    Bill Finneran -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:23 p.m.