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$$ 16-cube reship

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 21 May 2010, at 2:25 a.m.

In Response To: $$ 16-cube reship (Timothy Chow)

Are we really interested in a money-game position that is a take and that has the lowest cubeless probability of winning?

Yes. That's what I meant. I realized Bob probably had in mind "cubeful or cubeless" as soon as I answered his GWC question.

Consider your usually bandied-about no-gammon money game take point. About 22% cubeless. You can take a cube winning only ~22% because cube leverage raises your win percentage and/or the points you win in some of the games you win. In not all takable positions do you win more games because you own the cube. For example, the position in which you have a take but win only 18.75%, both cubeful and cubeless. But when you take, you generally counting on winning some games with the cube -- I mean with a double/pass. In any case, that ~22% takepoint is definitely cubeLESS, not cubeFUL. Cube leverage can reduce your takepoint from ~22% to 18.75%. An unusually high percentage of gammon wins would theoretically reduce it from ~22% to 16.66% without any cube leverage. Considering both gammon wins and cube leverage, is there a takable position with less than 16.66% cubeless wins?

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