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21$-54 rollout data (equities, links)

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 8:34 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-54 rollout data (equities, links) (Nack Ballard)

I don't normally include absolute equities because it clutters up the page, distracting from analysis.

I can appreciate that, but thanks all the same for doing this once. All those numbers point to no obvious problem, but do, I think, help illustrate the uncertainties entailed (of which I know you are well aware, Nack), in trying to make sense out of bot data from many sources.

I'd like to see some discussion of Tim's idea of averaging absolute equities (from meaningful rollouts by world class bots?) instead of averaging relative equities, and wonder what difference it makes.

For these rollouts I get

((10k*0.177) + (46k*0.1368) + (10k*0.175) + (10k*0.176) + (10k*0.167) + (10k*0.165) + (103k*0.158) + (19k*0.152))/218k = 0.156

and

((10k*0.165) + (46k*0.1340) + (10k*0.137) + (10k*0.136) + (10k*0.140) + (10k*0.149) + (103k*0.143) + (19k*0.145))/218k = 0.143

For a relative difference of 0.013

which ... what do you get by averaging the relative equities, 0.015 or 0.017? That is, no difference, considering that the SD of the relative equity in the longest of the rollouts is ~0.002.

Calculations ignore the fact that the three rollouts with seed 2 ought to be identical (except for Jacoby factor) if they are indeed with the same seed.

Messages In This Thread

• 4 ply RO of 21$-54
  neilkaz -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 5:18 p.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:18 p.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
    Chase -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:21 p.m.
    • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
      neilkaz -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:48 p.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:25 p.m.
    • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
      eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:32 p.m.
      • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 7:19 p.m.
  • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
    Chase -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 7:39 p.m.
    • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
      Neil Robins -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 8:38 p.m.
    • Currently [S R5]16k *NM*
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 7:41 p.m.
    • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 7:54 p.m.
      • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
        Chase -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 8:39 p.m.
        • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
          Chase -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 8:46 p.m.
          • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
            Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 4:35 a.m.
            • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
              Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 10:43 a.m.
              • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 10:51 a.m.
                • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                  Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 11:03 a.m.
                • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                  Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 2:11 p.m.
                  • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                    Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 4:53 p.m.
                    • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 5:44 p.m.
              • Nacbrac information
                Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 2:43 p.m.
                • Nacbrac information
                  Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 5:04 p.m.
                  • Nacbrac information
                    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 5:25 p.m.
        • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 3:39 a.m.
      • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54 w/Jacoby
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
        • Will extend this 3 ply to 100k
          neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 12:38 p.m.
    • XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54 - w/ Jacoby
      Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 11:16 a.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 8:19 p.m.
    • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 10:11 p.m.
  • 3 ply RO of 21$-54..over 100k
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 10:11 p.m.
    • Wild rollout results (bug?)
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 1:05 a.m.
      • Wild rollout results (bug?)
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 1:53 a.m.
        • Re-run of RO w/ random seed and Jacoby in progress
          Chase -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:08 a.m.
          • Re-run of RO w/ random seed and Jacoby in progress
            Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:27 a.m.
            • Re-run of RO w/ random seed and Jacoby in progress
              Chase -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:42 p.m.
          • Completed RO w/ Jacoby and random seed
            Chase -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 3:05 p.m.
        • My 10k with seed 2
          neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 3:09 a.m.
      • Wild rollout results (bug?)
        Chase -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:02 a.m.
      • Half as wild
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:37 a.m.
        • Half as wild
          Neil Robins -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 11:34 a.m.
        • Half as wild
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 5:01 p.m.
      • 21$-54 rollout data (equities, links)
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 7:50 p.m.
        • 21$-54 rollout data (equities, links)
          Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 8:34 p.m.
          • 21$-54 rollout data (equities, links)
            Nack Ballard -- Friday, 23 April 2010, at 9:03 a.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54 19k and finished
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 12:08 a.m.
  • Snowie RO of 21$-54
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 7:16 p.m.
    • Snowie RO of 21$-54
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 7:37 p.m.