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61P-xxx-21 positions

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 17 April 2010, at 7:03 p.m.

In Response To: 61P-xxx-21 positions (Ian Shaw)

Nack, thanks for that thorough response. I especially enjoyed the contrast of the most pro- and anti-5pt positions,

Thank you. It makes it worthwhile to continue posting such early game comparisons if I know someone is getting some value out of them.

It's useful to have an idea of the spread of equities, and it appears you can't make nuch of an error by always making the point.

It is true that of the positions I listed, P is only "wrong" (by a hair, as it turns out) when opp has made the 5pt (i.e., 61P-31P-21). However, if she has made both her 7pt and 5pt (i.e., 61P-11N-21), then P must be wrong by a lot (it looked so weak that I never bothered to trunc it). With a vague confirmation, Snowie eval is [V U28 W56 S67 P67].

I would say it is true that 61P-xxx-21P is best except when "xxx" is 11N or 31P (in the latter case P being only -.005, according to mtuhan's 20k XG rollout).

Do you also have the middle position, where the differnce is least?

61P-41S-21 [U P4 S39] 5k 1kS (XG full)

Stick rolled this out from an O'Hagan-Bishop match several weeks ago and posted it here. (Note: only 5k.)

My response post, there, too, may be a useful reference.

(To be picky, you've listed original 61P-31P-21P is listed as fractionally further back than 61P-51S-21P at -0.016, compared to -0.005 - although has been subsequently overturned by the new XG rollout.).

Did you mean "compared to -0.015" (as the 61P-31P-21 trunc's perception of P) instead of "compared to -.0005" (as you typed)? If so, I agree that the 61P-31P-21 trunc has P underrated.

Perhaps, though, the more relevant problem is that U is overrated; if you were to shift U from first place into third, P is appropriately -.007 (very close to XG full's -.005) and the trunc's ranking would agree with the XG full's ranking. It makes sense too: V (24/23 24/22) should beat U (24/21) when Opp's 8pt is stripped.

Nack

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