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4/4 huge RO basically the same

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 5:58 p.m.

In Response To: Test cube - ROLLOUT 3 ply checker - 4 ply cube (eXtreme Gammon)

With XG 3 and 4 plies underestimating the leader's chances here in this initial position, I suspect that some slightly bad takes occur later in these RO's and that this given position is probably a close technical double. Anyhow there is very little at stake here with this decision.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 98 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 43 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-FDB----a------aabbbbb-Ab-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	78.28% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.72% (G: 2.70% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	78.40% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.60% (G: 2.67% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.538
Redouble:	+1.082
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.976
Redouble/Take:	+0.972 (-0.004)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.024)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Search interval: Huge
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.003 (+0.973...+0.979)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.003 (+0.969...+0.975)
Double Decision confidence:	97.7%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12

Messages In This Thread

• Test cube
  Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 5:50 p.m.
  • Test cube
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 10:44 p.m.
    • Test cube
      David -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 1:44 a.m.
  • Test cube - ROLLOUT
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 11:05 p.m.
    • Test cube - ROLLOUT 3 ply checker - 4 ply cube
      eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 2:20 a.m.
      • 4/4 huge RO basically the same
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 5:58 p.m.