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Opening 32Z: reply errors

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Friday, 1 January 2010, at 9:42 p.m.

In Response To: Opening 32Z: reply errors (Nack Ballard)

I feel that the best time to play 32Z is at DMP. I have [S D4 Z6] - 20k which is probably the rollout on Stick's site. Since DMP includes many scores which are not strictly DMP, there are quite a few chances for this.

I think that 32S gets the fewest mistaken replies. The only one which is really tough at all is 32S-62 [H X21] - 15k. And, X isn't much of a mistake. I've never seen anyone play H here.

There aren't a lot of mistaken replies at 32D either. But, almost everyone plays 33B which is a sizable error. I also see things like 21S and 52D that add to a little more. Overall, I expect to see around 25% of the errors that 32Z generates.

Count me as making a "mistake" on 32Z-21 based on your Nacbrac. I'm not going to let my opponent make points with that builder on the 10 point. I'm going to play H rather than S. I'll play 21S after 52S, but not here.

I don't think you have seen the rollout below yet Nack. It is Supremo 46k. The gap between S and the others is a little wider than the MWC 46k posted on this site. (And, I don't use 1 for the seed any more either! This was started long ago.)

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, Readers 0

Move number 1: gnubg to play 32

gnubg167


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X ' ' '5O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '5X

Readers167

Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIEJAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 24/21 13/11 +0.0110
0.50190.13800.0071-0.49810.13600.0063 +0.0066 +0.0110
0.00030.00030.0001-0.00030.00030.0001 0.0008 0.0021
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 13/11 13/10 +0.0030 ( -0.0080)
0.49790.15020.0069-0.50210.14130.0076 +0.0041 +0.0030
0.00030.00030.0001-0.00030.00030.0001 0.0008 0.0020
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 24/22 13/10 -0.0037 ( -0.0147)
0.49880.13820.0064-0.50120.13730.0059 -0.0011 -0.0037
0.00030.00030.0001-0.00030.00030.0001 0.0008 0.0020
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 13/10 6/4 -0.0348 ( -0.0458)
0.49260.13960.0064-0.50740.14960.0098 -0.0282 -0.0348
0.00030.00030.0001-0.00030.00030.0002 0.0010 0.0025
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5 R 24/22 24/21 -0.0356 ( -0.0466)
0.49350.12460.0062-0.50650.13860.0055 -0.0264 -0.0356
0.00030.00030.0001-0.00030.00030.0001 0.0008 0.0020
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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