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Prime Time revisited at score with cube

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 23 December 2009, at 9:19 p.m.

In Response To: Prime Time revisited at score with cube (KenB)

Below is the Snowie rollout for the Prime Time position. (The sixth, seventh and eighth plays, which were also rolled 1296 trials, didn't export: 8/3* (margin of -.304), 13/9 12/11 (-.323), and 13/9 11/10 (-.324).)

I see Ken's XG rollout just arrived as well. Here is a bot rollout summary of 13/9 8/7 versus 11/7 8/7:

Snowie: 13/9 8/7 is better by .092
Gnu: 11/7 8/7 is better by .059 (just 432 trials)
XG: 11/7 8/7 is better by .028

That's a serious disagreement. I guess the best play will remain unclear unless someone wants to put in the the work to analyze the cube and/or checker play decisions in the next roll or two to see which bot(s) are mangling the position.

Nack

Snowie4 Professional Edition Version 4.7.1 HTML Export

(Green) vs. (White)
11 point Match
Match to 11. Score Green-White: 8-5




Pip: 133
Game 1
11 point match

Green-White:
Score 8-5
Pip: 99
#PlyMoveEquity
1R13/9 8/7 0.275
Live cube rollout: 0.158
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: -0.507 ±0.011,
- live cube: 0.158 ±0.016.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
2592 games (equiv. 55698 games),
played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply,
random seed, with race database.
2R11/7 8/7 0.183 (-0.092)
Live cube rollout: 0.156
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: -0.482 ±0.010,
- live cube: 0.156 ±0.015.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
2592 games (equiv. 68793 games),
played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply,
random seed, with race database.
3R11/7 10/9 0.134 (-0.141)
Live cube rollout: 0.054
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: -0.555 ±0.016,
- live cube: 0.054 ±0.024.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
1296 games (equiv. 25184 games),
played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply,
random seed, with race database.
4R13/9 10/9 0.016 (-0.259)
Live cube rollout: -0.043
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: -0.497 ±0.016,
- live cube: -0.043 ±0.022.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
1296 games (equiv. 27927 games),
played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply,
random seed, with race database.
5R24/23 13/9-0.024 (-0.299)
Live cube rollout: -0.051
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: -0.555 ±0.014,
- live cube: -0.051 ±0.019.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
1296 games (equiv. 35221 games),
played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply,
random seed, with race database.
This file has been generated bySnowie Professional Edition Version 4.7.1, a product of SnowieGroup SA
Output date: 12:43:17 PM, 12/23/2009(Export v2.10)

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