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$ Cube Action?
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: $ Cube Action? (Nack Ballard)
Date: Monday, 21 December 2009, at 1:15 a.m.
After getting some sleep, my assessment of the cube action remains pretty much the same: Massive take, and an aggressive redouble (though possibly correct, theoretically).
If White covers with a nine (4 numbers), she doesn't even lose her market (she will crack with all non-5s). If she covers with any a non-joker ace (9 numbers), she loses her market but I don't think by a ton (she'll still crack 25-30% just on the next roll, plus residual). The only huge market losers are 55 51 (3 numbers -- too good) or 5-run/fan (6 x 25/36 numbers, maybe too good), but the latter variation involves a breathhold in which an ace off the roof will give Green the upper hand.
Cube ownership will be worth a lot to either player when White cracks, or when she gets hit on the 1pt and a scramble ensues.
I don't know if this is a theoretical redouble or not, but if it's close then in practice I'd hold off, banking on my future cube errors being smaller than my opponent's (and more so than if I release the cube now). That is, unless in reading my opponent I believe I somehow have a non-trivial shot at an immediate pass.
Nack
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