Rollout

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 17 November 2006, at 8:55 a.m.

In Response To: 65R-33B-42? (Stick)

OTB I play 13/7 here and had no close second choice. I was surprised to see how close 24/18 came in. 13/7 unstacks that candlestick, slots a semi decent point since White's anchor is only on the 4 pt. and what I'm sure puts it ahead of the other plays is the duplication of 3s. 3-1 already made the 5 pt., as did 5-3. 3-3 was a good roll no matter what we played and 6-3 makes the bar so 13/7 it is! It leaves the least shots of all the plays and forces White off his anchor to hit which will give us plenty of immediate counterplay.
I don't like 24/20 13/11. I never like the idea of allowing my opponent to do two great things at once. The case here would be make the five point and put me on the bar. Granted, he's far from favored to make it naturally, but over 1/4th of the numbers do. It seems like we're diversifying our opponent's good numbers moving up to get trucked on and then leaving him another blot in case he missed the first one! 24/18 avoids the major pitfall of if hit then 5 pt. made. If missed we're a lot more sure of running to safety next turn too whereas if we stop on the 5 pt. and are missed (what actually misses?! either hitting loose, hitting the other blot, or POH, not much!) we're still not home free.
Money Game
155
156

Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity

1 R 13/7 -0.284

0.3% 7.8% 43.1% 56.9% 14.3% 0.5%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.204 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 175489 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

2 R 24/18 -0.291 (-0.008)

0.3% 6.7% 43.7% 56.3% 15.3% 0.4%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.213 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 174241 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

3 R 24/20 13/11 -0.317 (-0.033)

0.3% 7.2% 43.0% 57.0% 15.6% 0.5%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.226 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 168008 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

Money Game
155
156
Board image courtesy of *GO-Figure*

Messages In This Thread

65R-33B-42?
Stick -- Wednesday, 15 November 2006, at 5:40 a.m.
- Re: Opening 6-5, 3-3 (correct), 4-2
  Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 15 November 2006, at 1:31 p.m.
- Re: Opening 6-5, 3-3 (correct), 4-2
  Black Swan -- Friday, 17 November 2006, at 4:15 a.m.
- Rollout
  Stick -- Friday, 17 November 2006, at 8:55 a.m.

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:
If necessary, enter your password below:
Password:

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/7	-0.284
			0.3% 7.8% 43.1% 56.9% 14.3% 0.5%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.204 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 175489 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
	2	R	24/18	-0.291 (-0.008)
			0.3% 6.7% 43.7% 56.3% 15.3% 0.4%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.213 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 174241 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
	3	R	24/20 13/11	-0.317 (-0.033)
			0.3% 7.2% 43.0% 57.0% 15.6% 0.5%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.226 ą0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 168008 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.