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Re: OLM Th. March 1st

Posted By: Chase
Date: Thursday, 1 March 2007, at 2:02 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Th. March 1st (Stick)

My sense is that we're just short of a cube, but uneven match scores can be deceiving. When I start running the numbers, I'm more inclined to cube now.

W's tp is 29%, plus nearly 60% of our gammon wins, minus about half our gammon losses. I'll guess we win 18% gammons and lose 10% gammons. That puts W's tp, very roughly, at about 35%, minus cube vig. I'd guess W wins about 35%, so I think we're in the ballpark.

So, what if we hit and W enters awkwardly with, say, 62? I don't think he can take, and since this type of exchange happens fairly often, I'm guessing we have a small cube.

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