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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 14 November 2006, at 2:50 a.m.

In Response To: Tough Middle Game 5-1 to play (Stick)

Still TCTC in between the top two plays but I stopped the rollout because I have so many going I needed to get some others finished. What it did do was show two other solid looking plays to be blunders. OTB I hit both but only after careful reflection. While the five point would be nice to have it allows White too much freedom to play next turn. Giving him 6s to anchor up on our bar point, 4s to hit, and 5s to escape one of the two back checkers. 16/10 does clean up our blots but lacks any real momentum. The 10 pt. isn't all that valuable here since we already have the 4 pt. [the pt. 6 pips away in the outfield from a made pt.]

My play tries to seize the innitiative. Our builders are well diversified after hitting both and having basically equally strength boards, you are in the driver's seat by putting two up. If he doesn't respond with an immediate ace you have an opportunity to continue the attack. The same can be said of the 2nd best play, 16/11 8/7*. It again puts white under pressure to hit a flyer or your position has solid attacking/priming opportunities. Someone asked if the Jacoby rule is in effect, for any positions I post assume it is unless otherwise stated. [money games] Also they mentioned that w/a centered cube it may be the play if you 'aren't scared of losing a gammon'. I feel this position is exactly the opposite, it's the play as long as you don't mind winning a gammon.

Stick

Money Game
147
145
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/7* 6/1* 0.151
0.8% 21.9% 53.2% 46.8% 16.8% 1.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.108 ±0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 20995 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, without race database.
2 R 16/11 8/7* 0.130 (-0.021)
0.9% 17.1% 53.5% 46.5% 15.2% 1.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.089 ±0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 21143 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, without race database.
3 R 10/5 6/5 0.052 (-0.099)
0.5% 13.7% 51.1% 48.9% 11.7% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.042 ±0.016. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 23086 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, without race database.
4 R 16/10 0.012 (-0.139)
0.4% 10.7% 50.6% 49.4% 11.0% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.009 ±0.015. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 26580 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, without race database.

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