Position of the Day 03-17-25 - Smack him on the head or run b4 you're dead?

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Position of the Day 03-17-25 - Smack him on the head or run b4 you're dead? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 13 April 2025, at 6:13 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-17-25 - Smack him on the head or run b4 you're dead? (Stick)

You can see in the variant below that the error of PoH is at least lessened if the cube had already been turned. As was mentioned elsewhere in this thread, even though we're down a little in the race it's not easy for the opponent to turn this into a race. We should have ample opportunities to attack or prime the opponent while he tries to anchor up or escape out.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-a--EBCB--bB-----dbAbab-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq: +0.452
Player:
Opponent: 61.98% (G:8.62% B:0.32%)
38.02% (G:6.38% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.012 (+0.441...+0.464) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.9 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/3* 6/3 eq: +0.376 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent: 60.93% (G:15.41% B:0.94%)
39.07% (G:13.81% B:0.22%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (+0.365...+0.386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.0 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Cube turned

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-a--EBCB--bB-----dbAbab-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq: +0.162
Player:
Opponent: 62.22% (G:8.54% B:0.34%)
37.78% (G:5.97% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.155...+0.169) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21.6 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/3* 6/3 eq: +0.122 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent: 61.15% (G:16.01% B:1.05%)
38.85% (G:14.04% B:0.25%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (+0.114...+0.129) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21.1 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller