Another excellent reference position. I don't want to put words in John's mouth but I got the sense from his reply he thought the take was a bit more clear. OtB I thought the same. As John pointed out, if this was a straight race we'd have ~18% so combined with the shot equity one might think it was a more comfortable take. I think part of the issue may be, and I played this out quite a few times because it's so quick to do so, is that to maintain our racing equity we have to run off the anchor soon and in doing so we open ourselves up to being attacked. We can't enjoy the best of both worlds, all the presumed equity from the race and all the potential shot equity if we were able to sit on the anchor.
The position as it came up OtB is shown as the variant below. Idk how many would have been able to take the cube in my posting yet pass the variant as it differs by 'only' one pip.
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| XGID=--BBBCCA--------bbbcBcb-a-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.45% (G:0.92% B:0.01%) | 77.76% (G:0.77% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.55% (G:0.43% B:0.01%) | 22.24% (G:0.31% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.554 | +1.120 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.907 (-0.088) | ±0.002 (+0.905..+0.909) |
| Double/Take: | +0.995 | ±0.002 (+0.993..+0.997) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.005) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds | ||
Variant
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| XGID=--BBBCC-A-------bbbcBcb-a-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.42% (G:0.97% B:0.01%) | 78.78% (G:0.74% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.58% (G:0.42% B:0.01%) | 21.22% (G:0.28% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.574 | +1.161 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.928 (-0.072) | ±0.003 (+0.925..+0.930) |
| Double/Take: | +1.043 (+0.043) | ±0.004 (+1.040..+1.047) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 39.6 seconds | ||