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XG 3-ply makes an "obviously" bad play by its own definition

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 28 September 2024, at 1:19 a.m.

According to XG's own definition of "obvious", the following decision is considered obvious:

A double action where the equity before and after a double is very negative (less than -0.900). This corresponds to a loss of position when trailing in the match by a lot

As I understand it, in the above scenario, refraining from doubling is so obvious that it doesn't even count as a decision. So imagine my surprise when XG 3-ply redoubled me in the position below:





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 14
7 point match
pip: 166
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBCB-A---------B-A-gB-:1:1:1:00:4:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 3-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 12.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 16.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 87.74% (G:76.08% B:30.72%) 83.31% (G:74.69% B:35.75%)
  Cubeless Equities -1.511 -1.329
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-1.411 (-0.083)
Redouble/Take:-1.329
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+2.329)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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