This is another one that came up with a student during a lesson. I was a bit surprised to see that plays that don't involve leaving a blot on the 13 were big wrong.
Obviously, you give your opponent horror numbers like 16, but that is offset by how big a joker 11 is.
           
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 90 | | 7 point match | pip: 115
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBBAA---dB----Bbaacd--:0:0:1:53:0:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
1. | XG Roller++ | 13/5 | eq: -0.287 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.39% (G:4.43% B:0.08%)
62.61% (G:2.63% B:0.03%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/10 7/2 | eq: -0.289 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.66% (G:4.55% B:0.08%)
62.34% (G:2.51% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/10 8/3 | eq: -0.290 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.03% (G:4.26% B:0.07%)
62.97% (G:2.73% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/8 7/4 | eq: -0.300 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.89% (G:4.12% B:0.07%)
63.11% (G:2.74% B:0.03%) | |
|
5. | XG Roller++ | 8/5 7/2 | eq: -0.348 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.77% (G:2.91% B:0.04%)
64.23% (G:1.80% B:0.01%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2