BGonline.org Forums

Rollouts are irrational

Posted By: MK
Date: Monday, 15 July 2024, at 4:27 a.m.

In DailyGammon, Ian Shaw said: There are some mis-evaluations, and yet rollouts tend to support the bot evaluations. If the evaluations were totally useless then there would be serious discrepancies.

And I replied: I didn't say all evaluations were totally useless but said that they become so as you go back towards the beginning but that they become more accurate as you approach the end of the game.

Discrepancies found by rollouts may be just the tip of the iceberg. It's a fallacy to think that since rollouts find some discrepancies, they would show more if there were more discrepancies.

When you say "some mis-evaluations", you have no idea about the number and magnitute of the "mis-evaluations" that you refer to as "some". You guys have never measured it. You can't measure something by using it to measure itself. My mutant experiments are in an attempt to at least show you that your "circular" measurements are wrong, indeed meaningless.

Doing rollouts is one of the most irrational things that I have ever seen. If the bot have some biases to cuase "some mis-evaluations", when you suspect one, it's plain illogical to aks the bot to evaluate thousands more positions to confirm it. The same biases that a bot has, will cause it to mis-evaluate any/all subsequent positions during the rollouts.

I you suspect that a witness isn't telling the truth and you have no other witnesses to cross-examine, asking him a hundred more questions will not necessarily help you find out the truth, unless he confesses. Catching discrepancies in his repeated answers will only help you impeach the witness.

Bots are 100% consistent. If you ask it the same question a thousand times, it will give you the same answer a thousand times. So, you can impeach the bot by doing rollouts nor can a bot ever "confess". Rollouts are nothing more than "math masturbations".

Cross-examining your bot with my mutant cube strategies, I have impeached your witness by demonstrating to you all that your bot lies so much that it can't be trusted at all, since you will never be able to tell when it lies and when it doesn't.

I can imagine how this may be as traumatic for you as being told that there's no Santa when you turn 8 or that you were an adopted child when you turn 18... :(

MK