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Who You Got, Scenario 1

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 11 July 2024, at 4:26 p.m.

Shortly before the dinner break of the first day of main play a generous person announces sponsorship of a $1,000,000 winner take all prize free roll to those who are in any division of the Novi ABT tournament. No one had any idea that was going to occur so the field is a normal mix of players. Everyone eligible enters the free roll. However, hypothesize that in addition to that field that you add two additional players. One player must play the move given by XG++. The other player, player X, is chosen by you to be whom you think has the best chance to win this tournament. Choose wisely, you get a $20,000 prize if X wins. The format is single elimination 7 point matches of standard backgammon.

Who has the higher probability to win the tournament and by how much given as a multiplier greater than or equal to 1? Your chosen player X or the XG++ player?

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