6/4(2) is automatic, and 24/22 isn't a bad move per se (in the sense that if Blue had the option to play either two or three 2's instead of four 2's, he would choose 24/22 6/4(2) over 6/4(2) alone), but the problem is that Blue then has no good fourth 2. Since White has more of a priming position than a blitzing position, making the second anchor isn't particularly urgent.
6/2*(2) isn't really an attacking play since Blue is not in a position to carry out a successful attack; it should be thought of as a tempo hit. The large margin in the rollout below is attributable in part to the fact that Blue doesn't really have any other constructive play; see the variant for comparison.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 142 | Unlimited Game | pip: 166 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--aB--E-B--Bcab--b-bbbABA-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 22 |
1. | Rollout1 | 6/2*(2) | eq: -0.475 |
| Player: Opponent: | 29.32% (G:9.79% B:0.37%) 70.68% (G:24.95% B:1.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.486...-0.465) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 6/4(2) 6/2* | eq: -0.532 (-0.056) |
| Player: Opponent: | 29.34% (G:8.80% B:0.35%) 70.66% (G:29.90% B:2.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.544...-0.519) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 13 seconds |
|
3. | Rollout1 | 24/22 6/4(3) | eq: -0.585 (-0.109) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.79% (G:6.79% B:0.25%) 74.21% (G:25.48% B:1.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.594...-0.575) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52672062 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 142 | Unlimited Game | pip: 168 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--aB--D-C--Bcab--b-bbbABA-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 22 |
1. | Rollout1 | 6/2*(2) | eq: -0.510 |
| Player: Opponent: | 28.23% (G:8.76% B:0.41%) 71.77% (G:25.53% B:1.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.521...-0.500) - [99.8%] Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/4 6/4 | eq: -0.531 (-0.021) |
| Player: Opponent: | 27.35% (G:7.25% B:0.29%) 72.65% (G:24.35% B:1.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.541...-0.522) - [0.2%] Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52672062 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release