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Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 7 June 2024, at 2:59 a.m.

In Response To: Just another 22 to play (Timothy Chow)

6/4(2) is automatic, and 24/22 isn't a bad move per se (in the sense that if Blue had the option to play either two or three 2's instead of four 2's, he would choose 24/22 6/4(2) over 6/4(2) alone), but the problem is that Blue then has no good fourth 2. Since White has more of a priming position than a blitzing position, making the second anchor isn't particularly urgent.

6/2*(2) isn't really an attacking play since Blue is not in a position to carry out a successful attack; it should be thought of as a tempo hit. The large margin in the rollout below is attributable in part to the fact that Blue doesn't really have any other constructive play; see the variant for comparison.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142
Unlimited Game
pip: 166
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aB--E-B--Bcab--b-bbbABA-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.Rollout16/2*(2) eq: -0.475
Player:
Opponent:
29.32% (G:9.79% B:0.37%)
70.68% (G:24.95% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.486...-0.465) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout16/4(2) 6/2* eq: -0.532 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
29.34% (G:8.80% B:0.35%)
70.66% (G:29.90% B:2.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.544...-0.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout124/22 6/4(3)eq: -0.585 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
25.79% (G:6.79% B:0.25%)
74.21% (G:25.48% B:1.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.594...-0.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release


Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142
Unlimited Game
pip: 168
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aB--D-C--Bcab--b-bbbABA-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.Rollout16/2*(2) eq: -0.510
Player:
Opponent:
28.23% (G:8.76% B:0.41%)
71.77% (G:25.53% B:1.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.521...-0.500) - [99.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 8/4 6/4eq: -0.531 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
27.35% (G:7.25% B:0.29%)
72.65% (G:24.35% B:1.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.541...-0.522) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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