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OT Skill and Luck article

Posted By: Florin Popa
Date: Monday, 26 September 2016, at 11:16 p.m.

In Response To: OT Skill and Luck in soccer (Florin Popa)

I think this is a great article. https://www.wired.com/2012/11/luck-and-skill-untangled-qa-with-michael-mauboussin/

"Estimating luck for a sports team is pretty simple. You assume that each game the team plays is settled by a coin toss. The distribution of win-loss records of the teams in the league follows a binomial distribution. So with these two terms pinned down, we can estimate skill and the relative contribution of skill." Also "Provided that the contribution of luck remains stable, you get a case where increases in skill lead to luck being a bigger contributor to outcomes."

I am surprised to see in the ranking the soccer more skilfull than american football and baseball because is a big play event. But thinking at the odds, you see lower for the favorites in soccer. The only my doubt is that they consider only a league, if different leagues are considered maybe the result would be different.

Based on this criteria would be interesting to see where the backgammon can be compared to other disciplines like poker.

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