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Playing 31 -- ROLLOUTS of Both Positions

Posted By: Steven E. Carey
Date: Saturday, 18 June 2016, at 10:43 p.m.

In Response To: Playing 31 -- ROLLOUTS of Both Positions (Nack Ballard)

In my experience, these kinds of positions (make the offensive or defensive point) are extremely sensitive to the score. The difference of only one point can create an abrupt transition between strategies. It took considerable rolling out to completely make sense of this position.

As an example in this position at the beginning of a 7pt match (7A,7A), making the 5 point Is clearly correct, with a one point lead (6A-7A), the plays are equal, with a two point lead (5A,7A), the anchor is clearly correct.

As similar pattern emerges from a five or six point match. Two exceptions to this are 4A, 4A and unlimited games. There the anchor is with 2% of the 5 point. Other interesting scores are Crawford games with you opponent odd away. Then the two plays are equal with the 5 point slightly ahead. To make this clearer, I have mapped these results onto the grid of a match equity table as follows:

/Users/stevencarey/Documents/Opening Rolls & 2nd [Match Play]/3rd Moves/5pt vs 21pt display map.pdf

I hope this visualization doesn't throw anyone off. Tie scores are on the diagonal from lower right to upper left, leading scores are above that diagonal and trailing scores below.

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