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Comparing the Original Position and Variant

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 6 June 2016, at 7:12 a.m.

In Response To: Playing 31 -- VARIANT and Original Rollout (Nack Ballard)

Original Position





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 145
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BB-C-C--AcB---c-cbAb-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10

52S-22N-31P-32S-53P-44P-51Z-31

Choice 1: Make 5pt + blot on 11pt + no anchor

Make 21pt: any 3 (11 rolls)
Make 18pt: 33 63 (3 rolls; all are duplicated)
Make 7pt: 11 33 66 41 61 64 (9 rolls; only 1 is duplicated)
Total: 19 rolls make at least one of these points.

Choice 2: Anchor + blot on 10pt

Make 5pt: 11 33 44 31 51 53 (9 rolls)
Make 7pt: 11 33 66 31 61 63 (9 rolls; 4 are duplicated)
Total: 14 rolls make at least one of these points.

Variant





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 145
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BB-C-C-A-cB---c-cbAb-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10

32S-32H-61$-55P-51N-32E-53P-31

Choice 1: Make 5pt + blot on 10pt + no anchor

Make 21pt: any 3 (11 rolls)
Make 18pt: 33 63 (3 rolls; all are duplicated)
Make 7pt: 11 33 66 31 61 63 (9 rolls; 5 are duplicated)
Total: 15 rolls make at least one of these points.

Choice 2: Anchor + blot on 9pt

Make 5pt: 11 33 44 31 41 43 (9 rolls)
Make 7pt: 11 33 66 21 61 62 (9 rolls; 2 are duplicated)
Total: 16 rolls make at least one of these points.

 

Choice 1 is better in the original position than it is in the variant. Choice 2 is better in the variant than it is the the OP. The small differences show up in the counts given above.

Are those differences enough to overcome the small advantage that making the 5pt has in the original position?

Don't ask me! I was all for making the anchor in the original position.

Over the board, I would find it very difficult to discriminate between these two positions. That is somewhat odd, however, because almost all of us know instinctively that having spares on the 6, 8, and 11 points creates more point-making combinations than having spares on the 6, 8, and 10 points. Somehow, the clutter of these positions makes it easy to overlook that fact.

Mike

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