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DMP 51 -- Variant with 23pt -- ROLLOUT, etc.

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 26 February 2016, at 2:38 a.m.

In Response To: DMP 51 -- Variant with 23pt (Nack Ballard)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 125 1 point match pip: 184 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-A-D-Ca---B--dcBb-bbBA-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 51

1.	Rollout1	8/3 6/5	eq: -0.223
	Player: Opponent: 38.86% (G:4.38% B:0.36%) 61.14% (G:40.13% B:15.55%) Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.227...-0.218) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/3 4/3	eq: -0.233 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 38.36% (G:5.84% B:0.60%) 61.64% (G:34.88% B:9.52%) Conf.: กำ 0.003 (-0.236...-0.229) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/8 6/5	eq: -0.246 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 37.71% (G:3.72% B:0.42%) 62.29% (G:41.24% B:15.76%) Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.251...-0.240) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
4.	Rollout3	24/18	eq: -0.260 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 37.01% (G:4.78% B:0.47%) 62.99% (G:37.60% B:9.08%) Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.267...-0.253) - [0.0%] Duration: 33 minutes 59 seconds
5.	Rollout3	13/7	eq: -0.261 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 36.95% (G:3.29% B:0.33%) 63.05% (G:42.14% B:15.72%) Conf.: กำ 0.008 (-0.269...-0.253) - [0.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 56 seconds
6.	Rollout3	18/13 6/5	eq: -0.272 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 36.41% (G:4.16% B:0.27%) 63.59% (G:43.87% B:15.75%) Conf.: กำ 0.008 (-0.280...-0.264) - [0.0%] Duration: 34 minutes 06 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Raise your hand if you would left blots on your 3pt, 4pt and 5pt with 8/3 6/1, the play that the rollout indicates is clearly best.

I also rolled out a similar position, with a Blue spare moved from his 6pt to his 8pt:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 125 1 point match pip: 186 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-A-C-Da---B--dcBb-bbBA-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:10
Alternate position (a Blue spare is moved from 6pt to 8pt)

1.	Rollout1	8/3 6/5	eq: -0.219
	Player: Opponent: 39.04% (G:4.26% B:0.37%) 60.96% (G:40.92% B:15.06%) Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.223...-0.216) - [52.1%] Duration: 3 hours 35 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/3 4/3	eq: -0.219 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 39.04% (G:5.95% B:0.59%) 60.96% (G:35.12% B:9.00%) Conf.: กำ 0.003 (-0.222...-0.216) - [47.5%] Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
3.	Rollout1	8/7 8/3	eq: -0.224 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 38.79% (G:3.95% B:0.36%) 61.21% (G:42.01% B:15.47%) Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.228...-0.221) - [0.4%] Duration: 3 hours 38 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Pop Puzzle: From this rollout (just above), below is the position after Blue's best/tied 51 play is put on the board.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 125 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 180 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aAAAB-Ca---B--dcBb-bbBA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Puzzle: With Blue on roll, playing four moves to White's three, ..............achieve a full blot-prime versus a seven-point prime

By a remarkable coincidence, from here, it is possible to reach the identical Blot-prime versus Seven-prime position achieved in the solution to Problem 1 here, using the same conditions as in the original puzzle (Blue rolls first) -- except that White needs only three moves. In other words, from here: Blue-White-Blue-White-Blue-White-Blue.

Here is the solution:

In the position above, Blue rolls 55, playing it 23/18(2) 8/3 6/1, as shown below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 125 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AaBAAA-Ba---B--dcDb-bb-A-:0:0:-1:55:0:0:3:0:10
White to play 55

Now White rolls her own 55, playing it 23/8 16/11, as shown below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 105 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-BAAA-B----Ba-ddDb-bb-A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 33

Now Blue rolls 33, playing it 18/15(3) 13/10, as shown below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 105 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-BAAA-B-A--AaCddAb-bb-A-:0:0:-1:33:0:0:3:0:10
White to play 33

Now White rolls her own 33, playing it 11/5 8/5(2), as shown below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-BAAA-B-A--A-CdbAbcbb-A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 66

Now Blue rolls 66, playing it 24/12 18/12 15/9.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 124 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-BAAA-BAA-BA-Bdb-bcbb---:0:0:-1:22:0:0:3:0:10
White to play 22

Now White rolls 22, playing it 9/7(2) 5/1, as shown below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 85 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 124 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-BAAA-BAA-BA-Bbbbbbbb-a-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

Finally, Blue rolls 11, playing it 15/14 13/12 8/7 3/2, as shown below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 85 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 120 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAbbbbbbb-a-:0:0:-1:00:0:03:0:10
Final Position

[One may transpose Blue's rolls of 33 and 66.]

It is also possible to reach this position if Blue's original 51 had been played 8/7 8/3 (instead of 8/3 6/5) to set up a slightly different puzzle position. In that case, the unique solution sequence is 55: 23/18(2) 8/3 3/1. 33: 23/20 16/10 8/5. 66: 24/12 18/12(2). 55: 20/5 10/5. 33: 18/15(2) 13/10 12/9. 22: 9/7(2) 5/1. 11: 15/14 12/11 6/5 3/2.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• DMP 51
  Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 6:12 p.m.
  • DMP 51
    Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 7:14 p.m.
    • DMP 51
      David Levy -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 8:24 p.m.
      • DMP 51
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 10:19 p.m.
  • DMP 51
    Keene -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 8:38 p.m.
  • DMP 51 -- Variant with 23pt
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 2:07 p.m.
    • DMP 51 -- Variant with 23pt -- ROLLOUT, etc.
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 26 February 2016, at 2:38 a.m.
      • DMP 51 -- Variant with 23pt -- ROLLOUT, etc.
        Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 26 February 2016, at 9:49 a.m.
  • Rollout Results at Four Scores
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 6:03 p.m.
    • 15k Rollout (DMP)
      Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 1:13 a.m.