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BGonline.org Forums
PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
Posted By: Colin Owen In Response To: PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative) (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:20 p.m.
The 75% win rate is highly theoretical. I believe a match is affected equally by luck and skill only if a perfect player (who doesn't exist) beats a player who understands only the rules, on 75% of occasions.
With regard to top players win rates in matches of various length, the fact that there are no perfect players is, of course, much less significant than that the top players are playing against a broad spectrum, and not against total beginners. A perfect player might win between 70% and 75% say, of their typical (5 to 11 point?) tournament matches but, as these matches are not against total beginners, they are affected by skill much more than by luck.
A perfect player would, one suspects, win more than 75% of 1 point matches against a player who understood only the rules.
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