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BGonline.org Forums
PR or Luck? (Time management)
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative) (Rick Janowski)
Date: Friday, 12 February 2016, at 9:27 p.m.
"This is a good point I believe, at least in theory. Games at certain match scores are far more valuable (or potentially costly), and this is further accentuated whenever the game becomes gammonish or when the cube is raised. This could have a significant effect on optimal clock management, where perhaps more time should be saved up for games towards the end of the match, almost the opposite of what happens in practice for many players who struggle a little with clock management."
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Some use a match winning chance metric to suggest that one should be sure to have plenty of time for the last few games of a match. That approach is fundamentally flawed as the following thought experiment demonstrates. Suppose that you are playing a match to 11 but each game is cubeless and without bonus wins. Winning the first game in the set increases the win chance of the match by a small amount and if the score is tied 10-10, then winning the last match is a huge increase of 50%. But suppose that you lose such a match 11-10. A blunder which cost a win in the first game actually was worth a tremendous amount, you just did not know it at the time.
I actually think many players make an error of not using time when it deserves to be used early on in a match. Some think that any one who enters a DMP game with only a little time left has shown poor clock management and I disagree strongly.
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