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BGonline.org Forums
PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
Posted By: Sean Garber In Response To: PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative) (__1ERROR1__)
Date: Friday, 12 February 2016, at 7:57 a.m.
There are a few things I think could have been done better in the study and conclusions, but I am going to focus on the 2 things that bother me the most. There are only 3 classifications in the study on luck-- Lucky (+2 luck), Neutral (-0.5 to +0.5 luck), and Unlucky (-2 luck). First, there is a huge difference between +0.4 luck in a match, and -0.4 luck in a match. Both end up going in the same category, though, Neutral luck. What if your luck in the match is -0.6, +0.9, or +0.75? Those luck factors are not included in he study. His study concludes that,
"Believe it or not, whether you like it or not, the game is purely controlled by luck in short term no matter what your level of competence is in the design window that I worked in [3PR to 10PR and -2luck to +2luck…which is large enough in terms of coverage I believe]. "
A +2 luck factor in a backgammon match is big. When two players in the normal skill ranges of backgammon players sit down to play a match and one of them ends up with +2 luck, that player will win almost every time. 1ERROR1, the study designer, then makes the jump to this statement,
"Mathematically saying, the game is purely the game of luck in the short term."
Hogwash. This statement is much too broad and it is not what the study measured. Who ends up with better results if the luck is in the +0.2 to +0.3 range? Who handles -0.3 to -0.4 luck better? This study, to me, seems designed with parameters that insure only one result. Backgammon is a game of luck and skill. In the short term, luck is usually the most important factor, but the skill factor also counts.
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