BGonline.org Forums

PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:18 a.m.

In Response To: PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative) (__1ERROR1__)

1- Essentially, yes.

The reason you have match files where the player with lower luck wins is because of the EMG/MWC oddity I have mentioned. XG calculates luck by normalizing the match to "something like a money game" (like PR), which is usually pretty close to the chance that you win the match, but not always. In particular it is not correct with regards to the outcome of the match when the cube value becomes high. If you just measure luck as the equity difference on each roll without normalizing to "something like a money game" then you will not have matches won by a player with a negative luck factor.

You can read more here: http://www.bkgm.com/articles/Zare/AMeasureOfLuck.html

2- Negative numbers are the number of matches that player A is behind by.

So, if you sampled a set of 50 heads up matches multiple times, in 95% of the samples will have the 3.7 player will win between 36 and 22.1 matches, giving a W-L record somewhere between 36-14 [72%] and 22.1-27.9 [44.2%]. Or, in other words, there is a 95% chance that the 3.7 player will have a W-L record somewhere in that range. After 120 matches there is a 95% chance that the 3.7 player's winning percentage will be between 67.1% and 49.1%.

Messages In This Thread

• PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
  __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:04 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:21 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:29 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:03 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:47 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Colin Owen -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 3:01 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:37 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:10 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:52 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Schigolch -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 11:27 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:17 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:43 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:27 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:57 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 6:27 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        vidvis -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 7:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 1:35 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:12 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:13 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Rick Janowski -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:36 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:49 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 10:06 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 10:09 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 10:35 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 11:22 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 11:58 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:28 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:32 a.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 7:27 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 7:53 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 9:22 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:42 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                Bob Koca -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 9:27 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                  Stick -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 10:03 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 11:40 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Colin Owen -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:00 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:34 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:07 a.m.
                • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                  Rick Janowski -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 10:41 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Tom Keith -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:25 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 8:39 a.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Colin Owen -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:40 p.m.
                        • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                          Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 4:13 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:31 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:46 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 11:42 a.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:17 p.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:15 p.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management) Graphical Representation
                      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:01 p.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:20 p.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                        Colin Owen -- Sunday, 14 February 2016, at 4:42 p.m.
                        • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                          Colin Owen -- Sunday, 14 February 2016, at 4:44 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:19 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              johnk -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 6:46 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 6:55 p.m.
                • Thanks *NM*
                  johnk -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 8:51 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:11 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:07 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:18 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:34 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:21 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:23 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:14 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Igor -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:30 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 6:00 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    vidvis -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:05 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:15 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:38 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:28 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 12:21 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Albert Steg -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 5:56 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:44 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    sita -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 9:03 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:46 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 2:49 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 12:24 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Rick Janowski -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 2:04 a.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:41 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:51 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:08 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:24 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:33 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Colin Owen -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:20 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:53 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 12:54 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Florin Popa -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 1:08 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:32 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:45 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 4:04 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Sean Garber -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 7:57 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 9:01 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Schigolch -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 11:24 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    niuniuch -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 12:58 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Sean Garber -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:29 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:42 p.m.