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PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 11:58 p.m.

In Response To: PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative) (Matt Cohn-Geier)

PR is normalized to cube size. This probably assists the convergence of PR to an accurate measure of the skills of a player. But, it distorts the correlation between performance and match results. Mistakes made with a four cube hurt match winning chances more than mistakes made with a centered cube. The impact on PR is similar. If PR was calculated without being normalized, it would certainly correlate better with match results than the version we use. It is difficult to know how much impact this would have on calculations intended to parse luck and skill. It may be significant. It is certain that it would give greater weight to skill.

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