[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Three more Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 11 January 2016, at 7:08 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout and variant (Timothy Chow)

I almost passed over this position (thinking that the "Jasbra" header referred to a scented undergarment).






White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 115
7 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-B-BBB-A--AbB-a--bcbbCb--:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Original Position


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.56% (G:18.00% B:0.82%) 52.02% (G:18.76% B:1.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.44% (G:15.60% B:1.42%) 47.98% (G:18.35% B:4.99%)
Cubeless Equities +0.064 +0.470
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.463�0.011 (+0.452..+0.474)
Redouble/Take:+0.389 (-0.074)�0.015 (+0.374..+0.403)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.537)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 01 second

Above is Tim's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants. The first and third are cusps. The second one contrasts with the original.

In the first position, redoubling yields an equity of .555, is right by 5 millipoints, and it's a 5k rollout. Five 5's together! Perhaps it's a reminder to look at the Festival of FIVES position and choose your plays. :)






White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 113
7 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-B-BBB-A--AbB-a--bcbbC-b-:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Variant 1
Compared to the original, White owns her 1pt instead of 2pt


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 54.18% (G:18.97% B:0.88%) 54.68% (G:20.15% B:1.44%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 45.82% (G:15.30% B:1.38%) 45.32% (G:17.98% B:3.16%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.132 +0.623
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.550 (-0.005)กำ0.005 (+0.545..+0.555)
Redouble/Take:+0.555กำ0.007 (+0.548..+0.562)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.445)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:88.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 37 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 111
7 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-B-BBB-A--AbB-a--bbbbCc--:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Variant 2
Compared to the original, White is adjusted by 6/2


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.02% (G:19.13% B:0.98%) 55.47% (G:20.41% B:1.41%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.98% (G:14.82% B:1.14%) 44.53% (G:17.44% B:2.64%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.159 +0.667
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.570 (-0.029)กำ0.007 (+0.563..+0.577)
Redouble/Take:+0.599กำ0.010 (+0.589..+0.609)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.401)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 13 minutes

If white's 2pt spare is instead slotted on her 1pt (a 6/1 adjustment from the original position), Blue has a much bigger redouble.







White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 115
7 point match
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-B-BBB-AA--bB-a--bcbbCb--:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Variant 3
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted by 11/9


Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 52.66% (G:19.05% B:0.83%) 53.42% (G:20.27% B:1.26%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 47.34% (G:14.96% B:1.22%) 46.58% (G:17.70% B:3.41%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.106 +0.575
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.497 (-0.003)กำ0.005 (+0.492..+0.502)
Redouble/Take:+0.500กำ0.007 (+0.493..+0.507)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.500)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65876923
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:74.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 29 minutes

Any bigger improvement (than 11/9) for Blue, such as 11/7, or owning 3pt instead of 2pt, gives Blue a solid redouble.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.