| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/1 | eq: +0.1689 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.89% (G:16.19% B:0.38%)
36.11% (G:5.19% B:0.03%) | Conf.: �0.0042 (+0.1648...+0.1731) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/18 8/3 | eq: +0.0734 (-0.0955) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.86% (G:13.89% B:0.33%)
40.14% (G:5.90% B:0.03%) | Conf.: �0.0044 (+0.0691...+0.0778) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.1 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62769637
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
|
Above is Chuck's rollout of his original position.
Below is Chuck's rollout of his variant, which I'll call "Variant 1." Blue's three-checker cluster is backed up 1 pip. As Chuck notes, it is still wrong for Blue to split with the deuce.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 50 | | 5 point match | pip: 113
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BCBBB-A--b--------ABbef-:1:1:1:52:4:1:0:5:10 |
Variant 1
Compared to the original, Blue's cluster is backed up 1 pip |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/1 | eq: +0.2253 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.36% (G:17.90% B:0.45%)
32.64% (G:5.81% B:0.06%) | Conf.: �0.0044 (+0.2209...+0.2297) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23.6 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/19 8/3 | eq: +0.1811 (-0.0442) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.35% (G:17.43% B:0.46%)
33.65% (G:6.95% B:0.03%) | Conf.: �0.0044 (+0.1767...+0.1855) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21.6 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83628307
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
|
Likewise, if we instead back up White's point by 1 pip, Blue should not split with the deuce (see Variant 2 below).
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/1 | eq: +0.288 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.82% (G:16.64% B:0.33%)
31.18% (G:4.23% B:0.02%) | Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.285...+0.291) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/18 8/3 | eq: +0.238 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.28% (G:17.05% B:0.42%)
32.72% (G:5.11% B:0.01%) | Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.236...+0.241) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65876923
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
However, if we back up both Blue's cluster and White's point, Blue should split with the deuce (by a margin of .050, according to XGR++ evaluation), though I didn't roll it out.
What I did roll out is backing up White's point by 2 pips (creating the same distance between forces implied in the previous paragraph). In that case, it is similarly right for Blue to split with the deuce. See Variant 3 below.
Nack
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/18 8/3 | eq: +0.344 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.25% (G:18.04% B:0.46%)
28.75% (G:3.86% B:0.03%) | Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.341...+0.347) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/1 | eq: +0.294 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.00% (G:18.03% B:0.39%)
31.00% (G:4.11% B:0.11%) | Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.291...+0.297) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65876923
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
