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Too good advanced exercise -- SPOILER

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 4 November 2015, at 2:00 p.m.

In Response To: Too good advanced exercise -- SPOILER (Phil simborg)

Lets say one of the two checkers gets hit. It surprised me that the cube action would probebly be double/beaver!

I suppose it depends on the position after the hit. I tried 53 followed by 43 and got the following puzzling results. XGR+, XGR++, and full rollout all disagree, and I'm scratching my head over where the ~3% gammons come from. Does this make sense to anyone?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 70
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 26
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-----a-----------cbcbbbA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.14% (G:3.16% B:0.56%) 77.62% (G:2.76% B:0.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.600 +1.169
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.000±0.000 (+0.999..+1.000)
Redouble/Take:+0.997 (-0.003)±0.020 (+0.976..+1.017)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.000)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 49.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:61.6%
Take Decision confidence:63.2%
Duration: 23.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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