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| XGID=--CBCBD---A--------dccaba-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 21 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/8 2/1 | eq: -0.4898 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/4 2/1 | eq: -0.4927 (-0.0029) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/8 6/5 | eq: -0.5007 (-0.0109) | |||
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| 4. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/4 | eq: -0.5093 (-0.0194) | |||
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| 5. | Rollout1 | 6/5 3/1 | eq: -0.5100 (-0.0202) | |||
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| 6. | Rollout1 | 10/9 6/4 | eq: -0.5137 (-0.0239) | |||
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| 7. | Rollout1 | 10/9 3/1 | eq: -0.5148 (-0.0250) | |||
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| 8. | Rollout1 | 10/7 | eq: -0.5162 (-0.0264) | |||
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| 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38523512 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| XGID=--BCCBD---A--------dccaba-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 21 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5 3/1 | eq: -0.5166 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/9 3/1 | eq: -0.5267 (-0.0100) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/8 6/5 | eq: -0.5334 (-0.0167) | |||
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| 4. | Rollout1 | 10/8 2/1 | eq: -0.5348 (-0.0182) | |||
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| 5. | Rollout1 | 6/4 2/1 | eq: -0.5349 (-0.0183) | |||
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| 6. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/4 | eq: -0.5389 (-0.0222) | |||
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| 7. | Rollout1 | 10/7 | eq: -0.5393 (-0.0227) | |||
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| 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38523512 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
When you have only one checker left outside, it is almost always wrong to slot the bar point with an ace. If there is a gap that need to be filled, or a point that needs to be unstacked, that will usually be more important than bringing a checker to the 7pt.
In order to maximize the chance of bearing off at least one checker on the next roll, Blue must slot the ace point now. Otherwise, many aces on the next roll fail to bear off.
In the first position, slotting with the 1 is correct (while playing the 2 outside). In the second position, slotting with the 2 is best. Blue could play the 1 outside in order to make sure he can bear off when he rolls 31 next turn. It is better, however, to unstack his 6pt. That way, Blue can bear off next turn with most doubles and any roll that has a 4, 5, or 6 (32/36), plus he gets a better distribution. The improved distribution is worth the risk that he might roll 31 next turn.
Mike