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Post Crawford against inferior opponent (corrected)

Posted By: sita
Date: Tuesday, 29 September 2015, at 5:15 p.m.

In Response To: Post Crawford against inferior opponent (corrected) (Trunky)

You asked

Is this flawed logic?

to the following question, if I get it right:

I have 60% chance to win against this opponent at DMP. Despite post-crawford, he doubles roughly like in money (let's assume for simplicity that he finds always the perfect money doubles). When I drop, I am 4 away. Thus, I have 4 times this 60% chance.

Answer: This is flawed logic. Because according to this logic, you have to drop the next double again. So, whenever his position is near 75% (money double), you have to drop. He has way more than 40% chance to get to that point during a game at least once. Since you have to drop in that case, you won't have 60% to win the next game - it simply is not DMP.

This is the easy answer to your question. The difficult part is: When exactly should you pass free takes? This one I cannot answer, and others suggest already further reading.

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