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BGonline.org Forums
Post Crawford against inferior opponent (corrected)
Posted By: Carlo Melzi In Response To: Post Crawford against inferior opponent (corrected) (Trunky)
Date: Tuesday, 29 September 2015, at 2:56 p.m.
In order to help you, let me rephrase your question.
My understanding is that you were asking something very specific, that is: "Playing against an opponent that doesn't auto-double in ALL post-Crawford games, should I pass if doubled when I have 25% game winning chance in a free-take situation?"
The answer to this question is not trivial, and it may be interesting if fishes like that were still around. It actually happened to me to reach 6-0/7(Crawford) and lose 7 straight games against a novice player that never used the cube. However, this was about 15 years ago, and I haven't seen anything similar after that.
Please note that his doubling late in a free-take score doesn't imply he will double late in the next games as well. Many players delay doubling at free take scores but double immediately at free drop scores.
However, for the fun of it, let's make the following extreme assumptions:
- your opponent will never use the cube in the following games
- your opponent checker play skill are in the same ballpark as yoursUnder these assumptions, if he doubles you at -p-3 (normally a free-take score), you should take only if you have more than 36% GWC.
This is because with 36% GWC, if you take you have 36% + 64%*50% = 68% MWC
If you drop, you go -p-2, where you win about 68% if he never doubles you.As you can see, what was a free-take score becomes now a score with a take-point as high as 36%. Depending on the assumptions you make about your opponent's doubling tendencies and checker play skill, you might come out with very different answers.
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