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BGonline.org Forums
Really, will no-one help me?
Posted By: Jake Jacobs In Response To: Really, will no-one help me? (Trunky)
Date: Tuesday, 29 September 2015, at 1:45 a.m.
Trunky, here is a simple answer.
Imagine the score is 3-away, 3-away, you have a checker on your ace, and your opponent has one on his 6pt, and he redoubles to 4. Your cubeless winning probability is exactly 25%. Against an evenly matched opponent your chances of winning from 3-away, Crawford are close enough to 25% as not to matter. Thus against an even opponent passing or taking are a matter of indifference, you win as many matches either way.
It should be clear that if your opponent is stronger, you must take. You win 25% no matter how strong he is. If your opponent is weaker, you must pass. Surely you will win more than 25% of your matches from 3-away, Crawford against him.
Everything after that is complicated. Cube decisions are seldom balanced upon a hair-thin tightrope, as in the example. And the clearer a take becomes on merit, the worse your opponent must play for you to pass. Not only that, many cube decisions entail the effect of later cube turns. Perhaps you could muster a take of a given cube against a weak opponent, except that against such an opponent you should never redouble. Also, not all games are created equal. Skill difference matters little in a race, but quite a bit in games with contact. Which in general turns out to mean that you should use the "Fish factor" in races but ignore it in blitzes, the opposite of what most players do in practice.
As for recommending books, Chase may have been joking, but I just bought his book recommendation (and I am guessing I already know more US history than everyone in this thread put together, given an overlap of what most are taught). Books are our friends.
Of course if you buy Fish it puts money in my pocket. That's friendly too. :-)
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