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Post Crawford against inferior opponent (corrected)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 27 September 2015, at 5:59 p.m.

In Response To: Post Crawford against inferior opponent (corrected) (Jake Jacobs)

The fish book is a great book, but it doesn't really address Trunky's question, which depends sensitively on the assumption that a large part of the opponent's inferior skill lies in being too slow to double.

To answer Trunky's question, I think that to get a quantitative answer, you need to come up with a quantitative model of your opponent's doubling tendencies. For example, if you're talking about getting 4 chances to exercise your 60% edge, then does that mean you're assuming that your opponent will never double? But if your opponent never doubles, why are you puzzling over a cube decision? Given that your opponent is doubling you, I think you have to assume that your opponent will double some of the time, in which case do you really think you have a 60% edge in each game even though you're (in effect) resigning some games where you would have 25% winning chances cubelessly?

Also, of course, your calculation doesn't seem to take gammons into account.

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