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Exercise + Bot is Cheat

Posted By: scotty
Date: Saturday, 13 June 2015, at 2:49 a.m.

In Response To: Exercise + Bot is Cheat (Stick)

I'll take a stab at this...if blue gets a hit, blues GWC equity with a closed board, and white with 8 checkers, is a little better than 50% to win this game...say 52%. I'll estimate blues chances of closing his board is close to 100%, say 97%. Further, if blue wins this game, the score will be 4a 1a PC, and MWC for blue is a little less than 2a1a crawford (32.3%) at that score, say about 31%.

Blue must get the hit first, and his chances of doing that are slightly better than 1/36 x 11/36 = 11/1296. (It is possible what white will roll 11 again).

Blues MWC is equal to his chances of hitting times chances of closing his board, winning this game, times chances of winning the match from this score.

Ball parking the math, .52 x .97 is approx equal to 0.5. ....awwww, forget the math...

Blues chances of winning this game are less than 1 in 100, unless blue gets the hit....less than 1 in 200 in fact, because the hit produces about 50% wins....and even with a win, blue takes the match less than 1 in 3 times.

Blues MWC here are somewhere between slim and none, period. I think the actual number here will be about 0.15% MWC

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