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Are we getting our gammon price?

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 6 April 2015, at 6:30 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150405A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)

I think it is clear that making the 3pt and 4pt wins more games than any alternative. The only reason to shy away from it is because it leaves 4 blots, and it would be easy to lose a gammon if they were all scooped up.

In an unlimited game, the gammon price is 0.5 (ignoring recube vig). If a certain play wins more games than an alternative, but also loses more gammons, the tradeoff has 1 extra win balancing 2 extra gammon losses. I think our gammon price is close to that at this score. Actually, because we trail in the match, it should be a little better.

Are we getting our gammon price after making the 3pt and 4pt? I think we are. The upside is tremendous. If we are not hit, we could make the 7pt or 2pt with 27 rolls: 63, 53, 43, 33, 64, 54, 65, 61, 51, 41, 31, 21, 11, 62, and 44. Barring those rolls, we could also make our 1pt with 65 and 22. Of the remaining 6 rolls, 66 and possibly 55 would force us to leave a shot or break our 6pt. That’s 27 great rolls, 3 good ones, 3 neutrals, and only 3 bad rolls. No alternative comes close.

Chuck mentioned another thing. Some of the alternatives include leaving 3 blots. We might just as easily lose a gammon when 3 blots are scooped up as when 4 are.

Mike

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