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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20150405A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM 20150405A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)
Date: Monday, 6 April 2015, at 12:59 p.m.
I made a more detailed table than Mike has posted, although I'm not good at putting tables in posts as he is. Here are the columns that I think are the most important (most of which he included):
Total number of blots: the plays that make the extra homeboard point leave 3 and 4. Most of the competitors to those leave only 2.
Total number of shots: of the two plays that make the new homeboard point, 1(2) leaves two fewer than 3(2).
Shots outside opp's homeboard (these basically offer us very little immediate retaliation): [15/7] only 4, [8/4, 15/11] only 6. All other non-point-makers leave all their shots outside. [3(2)] leaves 7, 1[(2)] leaves 8.
Between the two (for me, remaining) contenders that don't make another inside point, I give a slight edge to 15/7. Note if Dillies enter and hit loose in their homeboard, our remaining blot on average is safer since their 15 and 13 (hitting rolls?) don't shadow our remaining blot. I think this is slightly more important than being able to cover our 8-point blot with a 3 (a duplicated 3) when they miss us on our 11-point.
Of the two rolls that make a new point, I think the decisions is even tougher. 3 blots vs. 4 may be a small effect -- really don't know -- since getting 3 swept up is almost as bad as 4 (by maybe "all 3 vs. any 3 of 4" matters). The fewer number of shots favors 1(2). The builder distribution favors 3(2). Given that most of the time opp enters (and most of those entering rolls hit) I think the fewer shots swings the choice in favor of 1(2).
Finally, do we play aggressively (more homeboard points, more opp fans, more gammon W's when things go well) or conservatively (stay in the game when Dillie's respond well)? Given that they hit us more than they fan, I'm going the conservative route:
1st choice = 15/7
2nd choice = 8/4, 15/11
3rd choice = 1(2)
4th choice = 3(2)
(And note my original vote sank to 4th....)
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