[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Table of Blots and Shots

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 6 April 2015, at 5:50 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150405A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)

I wanted to count our return shots after we are hit, but I pooped out after counting shots! Below are the totals.

One thing stands out: all the candidates leave either 13 or 14 shots. There is not much difference in that regard. Leaving a blot on the 22pt, while not making the 3pt, gives the Dillies a fine 33 joker. It hits and let’s them fill in their 5pt. Those are noted, along with any double hits, in the notes below the table.

Move Blots Shots
8/4*(3), 22/18 2 13: (63, 33³, 31), (62, 22, 21), (61, 11)
8/4*(3) 15/11 2 13: (33¹, 32)4, (52, 22), (51, 31, 21, 11)
8/4*(2), 15/7 2 14: (53, 33¹), (62, 52, 32), (51, 31, 11)
8/4*(2), 22/18, 15/11 3 13: (53, 33, 32, 31), (62, 22, 21), (11³)
8/4*(2), 5/1(2) 3 14:   (61, 51, 31, 11), (62, 52, 32, 22)
8/4(2)*, 7/3(2) 4 14: (62, 52, 32, 22), (63, 53, 33¹, 31²)

¹joker hits and makes 5pt.
²bananas split duping 3 and 4
³double hits
4 53 jumps out rather than hitting.

I think it is worth repeating how good the follow-up is when we make the both the 3pt and 4pt, and manage to survive. This is from my original post: “If we were not hit, we could make the 7pt or 2pt with 27 rolls: 63, 53, 43, 33, 64, 54, 65, 61, 51, 41, 31, 21, 11, 62, and 44. Barring those rolls, we could also make our 1pt with 65 and 22. Of the remaining 6 rolls, 66 and possibly 55 would force us to leave a shot or break our 6pt.” I think there is more upside to this play than any of the others.

Another thing that has occurred to me is that I don’t know our gammon price. Whatever it is, however, it should be more friendly at this score than in an unlimited game. If making the 3pt and 4pt turns a loss into a win, but also turns two other losses into gammon losses, the price of those gammons is only 0.5 in an unlimited game. I think this goes a long way towards mitigating the danger of leaving 4 blots.

I want to hear the opinions of others before making a final decision, but as of now, I am leaning towards making both the 3pt and 4pt. My plan is to go with that if it gets a clear majority. If not, I will select whichever alternative got the most support.

Mike

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.