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potential swiss rules modification

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 2 April 2015, at 2:33 p.m.

In Response To: potential swiss rules modification (Jason Lee)

Suppose I want to know which of two plays has the higher $-equity. I do a long rollout and reach statistically significant (by some pre-set condition) result. Play A has higher equity than play B.

While looking at details of the results I notice that play B wins more gammons, at a high level of confidence. I find that interesting/important.

But when I started the simulation I didn't consider (or question) the gammon breakdown. Do I need to do a fresh rollout?

I'll be more specific. Say the statsig for the gammon result showed play B ends in more gammons than play A at a level of 5 s.d. May I conclude that B wins more gammons than A at the 5 s.d. level? If not, is there a confidence I can place on this result at all?

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