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Ace to Play in an Ending Position

Posted By: David Presser
Date: Sunday, 28 December 2014, at 4:09 a.m.

In Response To: Ace to Play in an Ending Position (mochy)

Thanks for your inputs. I didn't look at the position in this way and crunching the numbers certainly helps for a better and deeper understanding.

A couple of comments regarding your SWAG:

I checked on XG and not hitting leaves you with 65-70% (depending on whether the 3 pt is voided or not) and if you get hit you have 20%. So the 50% is a good ballpark.

You got to the 4.2% assuming filling the 3 pt has 0% value if you get hit. I am not sure that is true as the race may be relevant under the hitting scenario as well. I would guess using SVWAG (VW for Very Wild) that it is relevant 1/3 of times when you get hit. Therefore, the race is relevant 2/3 + 1/3*1/3 = 7/9. Consequently, the question is whether filling the 3 pt is worth 2.8% * 9/7 = 3.6%.

When you approach it like that you see the value in filling the 3 pt for the 2 extra shots.

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