Thanks all for your valuable inputs!
OTB I played 15/8 too automatically thinking that smoothing the distribution can't be worth 2 extra shots. I would have considered it for one extra shot. I may have made an error on the checker play but it was a blunder in my approach.
Here are the rollout:
ATS:
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 59 | | 9 point match | pip: 60
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CC-DDa--------A----db-dd-:2:-1:1:61:2:2:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/9 4/3 | eq: -0.192 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.90% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
50.10% (G:0.15% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.193...-0.191) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24.3 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/8 | eq: -0.220 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.94% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
51.06% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.220...-0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18.1 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 5/4 | eq: -0.277 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.80% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
53.20% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 2/1 | eq: -0.295 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.94% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
54.06% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) | |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30788028
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 59 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 60
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CC-DDa--------A----db-dd-:2:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/9 4/3 | eq: -0.170 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.75% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
50.25% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.171...-0.169) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/8 | eq: -0.194 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.97% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
51.03% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.195...-0.193) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 5/4 | eq: -0.243 (-0.073) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.85% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
53.15% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 2/1 | eq: -0.262 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.97% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
54.03% (G:0.14% B:0.00%) | |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
DMP:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 59 | | 1 point match | pip: 60
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CC-DDa--------A----db-dd-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/9 4/3 | eq: -0.005 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.75% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
50.25% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.005...-0.005) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/8 | eq: -0.022 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.89% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
51.11% (G:0.14% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.022...-0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16.5 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 5/4 | eq: -0.069 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.55% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
53.45% (G:0.12% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 2/1 | eq: -0.085 (-0.080) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.75% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
54.25% (G:0.12% B:0.00%) | |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30788028
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
As pointed correctly, the voided 3 and 6 points are significant (I think I first read about it in the Magriel book in the bear off chapter). How important is it? For no contact I would add ~3 pips based on my adjustment (I have my non-formal adjustments which I modified based on Ward, experience, and positions I collected). The reason is that the 1 and 2 points are heavy already and every 3 sends more checkers to those points and there are a lot of checkers to clear from the 4 and 5.
My flawed thinking was that I didn't expect it to be so relevant and significant at this point of the game. However, by giving the extra two shots Blue gains those effective 3 pips in the race. Moreover, As Mochy and Neil pointed, there is an added unique factor in this position - If Blue isn't hit, most 3s and 6s play much better from the 9 pt than the 8 pt.
So is it worth it? Yes. By how much? I will let the variations answer this question:
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 71 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 60
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CC-DDa--------A---cbcbbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/8 | eq: -0.107 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.25% (G:1.14% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.108...-0.105) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/9 4/3 | eq: -0.127 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
52.72% (G:1.26% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.128...-0.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17.3 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 5/4 | eq: -0.185 (-0.078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.15% (G:1.23% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 2/1 | eq: -0.197 (-0.091) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.69% (G:1.25% B:0.02%) | |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30788028
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 65 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 60
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CC-DDa--------A---bbbcbc-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/9 4/3 | eq: -0.234 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.99% (G:1.02% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.236...-0.233) - [97.2%]
Duration: 23.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/8 | eq: -0.236 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.50% (G:0.84% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.237...-0.235) - [2.8%]
Duration: 24.5 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 5/4 | eq: -0.301 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.56% (G:0.93% B:0.01%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 2/1 | eq: -0.315 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.22% (G:0.94% B:0.01%) | |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 63 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 60
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-CC-DDa--------A----ccccb-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/9 4/3 | eq: -0.266 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.28% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
55.72% (G:0.61% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.268...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/8 | eq: -0.286 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.69% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
56.31% (G:0.46% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.288...-0.285) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12.5 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 5/4 | eq: -0.327 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.53% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
58.47% (G:0.53% B:0.01%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 15/9 2/1 | eq: -0.345 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.71% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
59.29% (G:0.53% B:0.01%) | |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30788028
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Thanks to Bruce Farquhar for helping with the rollouts.