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BGonline.org Forums
Ace to Play in an Ending Position
Posted By: mochy In Response To: Ace to Play in an Ending Position (David Presser)
Date: Saturday, 27 December 2014, at 7:30 a.m.
I calculated that getting hit harm your winning chance by 50%. (Not getting hit leaves you 70% while getting hit leaves you 25%, so 75-25 = 50) That means you would give up about 2.8% winning chance by leaving 2 more shots. I know it is based on my guts feeling and rough estimation but it gives me a ball park number.
Is filling a 3p worth 2.8% in the race? Actually not all game goes to race because you get hit about 2/3 of the game, so in reality you have to be about 4.2% better shape.
I think it does. I happen to know that slotting from 4 to 3 is worth 1 extra pip in general.1 extra pip in this kind of race is already worth 3% or more.
However it is an extreme situation. You have no checker on a six point so that you will bury the checker(s) anytime you roll a 3. By playing 4/3, not only creating three, you can also use your first three as a bear in number, and a landing point is a six point!!! How convenient is that. Now your 3 became OKAY number. Same is said about an initial six. You can fill the gap with the first six which is otherwise a wastage. Note that 15/8 gives you a five to fill the gap, but five can be used as a bear off.
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